To understand the full-scale war raging in Ukraine, one must look east to the smoky, industrial heartland of the Donbas. More than just a battlefield, the Donetsk and Luhansk regions—collectively known as the Donbas—represent the core geopolitical and ideological prize for the Kremlin. Russia’s desire to control this region is not a sudden ambition but a calculated imperative, driven by a deep and complex web of history, strategy, economics, and national identity.
While the 2022 invasion brought global attention to the area, the conflict began here in 2014. Russia’s fixation on the Donbas is the key to decoding its entire war aims. It’s a story of imperial nostalgia, military strategy, economic necessity, and a cynical political play all rolled into one.
1. The Historical and Cultural Claim: “Novorossiya” and the Russian World
At the heart of Russia’s justification is a historical narrative that paints Ukraine not as a sovereign nation, but as an artificial construct and a natural part of Russia’s sphere of influence.
- The “Novorossiya” (New Russia) Myth: President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly invoked the term “Novorossiya,” a tsarist-era imperial designation for the vast territories of southern Ukraine, including the Donbas, conquered from the Ottoman Empire in the 18th century. By using this term, the Kremlin pushes a narrative that these lands are historically Russian, their transfer to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic in 1922 a mere administrative formality of the USSR. Controlling the Donbas is framed not as invasion, but as “reclaiming” historically Russian land.
- The “Russian World” (Russkiy Mir) Ideology: This is a modern political doctrine asserting a responsibility to protect ethnic Russians and Russian speakers beyond its borders. The Donbas, with its large Russophone population (a result of deliberate Soviet-era migration policies to staff its industries), became the perfect petri dish for this ideology. Russia portrayed the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity as a “fascist coup” that threatened these Russian speakers, providing a pretext for intervention. Controlling the Donbas allows Russia to position itself as the protector of this imagined community, a justification for domestic and international audiences.
2. The Economic and Industrial Prize: Coal, Steel, and Leverage
Beyond ideology, the Donbas holds significant tangible economic value, both for what it possesses and what it denies Ukraine.
- An Industrial Powerhouse: Historically, the Donbas was the engine room of Soviet industry. It contained some of the richest coal basins in the USSR (earning it the nickname “the Coal Basket”) and massive metallurgical and heavy machinery plants. While many of these industries have been in decline since the Soviet collapse, they still represent a critical part of Ukraine’s industrial base. Capturing them damages the Ukrainian economy and absorbs this remaining industrial capacity for Russia.
- Strategic Resources: Beyond coal and steel, the region holds significant deposits of other valuable minerals and is a key hub for manufacturing, particularly for machinery critical to heavy industry.
- Economic Strangulation: By seizing the Donbas, Russia severs a major artery of the Ukrainian economy. It’s not just about what Russia gains, but about what it denies its adversary. A Ukraine without the Donbas is a weaker, poorer, and less industrially capable state, easier to dominate and influence in the long term.
3. The Geostrategic Imperative: Land Corridors and Buffer Zones
This is perhaps the most calculated and cold-eyed motivation. The geography of the Donbas is a military strategist’s chessboard.
- Completering the Land Bridge to Crimea: The 2014 annexation of Crimea was a brilliant tactical move with a major strategic flaw: it was a peninsula with no land connection to Russia. Securing the entire Sea of Azov coast, including the Donbas, was essential to create a stable “land bridge” to Crimea. This ensures secure military and logistical supply routes to the strategically vital Black Sea peninsula, home of Russia’s warm-water naval fleet in Sevastopol. The 2018 construction of the Kerch Strait Bridge was a step, but it remained vulnerable. A land corridor anchored by the Donbas is far more resilient.
- Denying Ukraine’s Economic Lifeline: The port city of Mariupol, now tragically famous for its siege, was the key to this strategy. Its capture gave Russia full control of the Sea of Azov coast, effectively turning it into a Russian lake and strangling a vital outlet for Ukrainian agricultural and steel exports.
- Creating a Deeper Buffer Zone: For the Kremlin’s security apparatus, which views NATO expansion as an existential threat, every inch of territory is a buffer. Controlling the Donbas pushes the potential front line hundreds of kilometers further away from Russia’s core territory. It places Russian forces closer to the heart of Ukraine (making future advances on cities like Dnipro or Zaporizhzhia easier) while making it exponentially more difficult for Ukraine to ever threaten Crimea.
4. The Political Objective: A Permanently Weakened Ukraine
Ultimately, Russia’s goal is to ensure Ukraine can never function as a successful, independent, pro-Western state. The Donbas is central to this project of perpetual disruption.
- The “North Korea” Scenario: Even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, a Russian-occupied Donbas becomes a permanent, frozen conflict zone. Like the breakaway regions of Transnistria in Moldova or Abkhazia in Georgia, it would be a Russian-controlled dagger pointed at Kyiv. It would drain Ukrainian resources, prevent NATO membership (as you can’t join with unresolved territorial disputes), and give Moscow a permanent lever to destabilize the Ukrainian government through political manipulation, espionage, and controlled military escalation at will.
- A Demographic and Political Weapon: The war has caused a massive demographic shift. Millions of Ukrainians have fled the occupied territories, to be replaced by imported Russian citizens and narratives. This process of Russification aims to create a population that is politically loyal to Moscow, ensuring the region can never be peacefully reintegrated and will forever serve as a tool against Kyiv.
Conclusion: The Unifying Prize
Russia’s desire for the Donbas is not driven by a single reason but by the powerful convergence of all these factors. It is the ultimate expression of Putin’s revanchist foreign policy:
- It satisfies the historical-ideological urge to reassemble the “Russian World.”
- It delivers a significant economic and industrial prize.
- It achieves a paramount military-strategic goal by securing Crimea and creating a vast buffer zone.
- It fulfills the core political aim of neutering Ukrainian sovereignty for generations.
The Donbas is more than just territory; it is the linchpin of Russia’s entire strategy to control Ukraine and reassert itself as a dominant imperial power. To lose the Donbas, for the Kremlin, is to lose the war. To control it is to hold the key to Ukraine’s future—a future Russia is determined to shape according to its own dark and imperial design.