The question of whether Russia is losing the war in Ukraine is complex and depends on how one defines “losing.” While Russia initially expected a swift victory, the conflict has dragged on for over two years, with significant losses in troops, equipment, and geopolitical standing. Ukraine, backed by Western military aid and intelligence, has mounted a strong resistance, reclaiming territory and inflicting heavy casualties on Russian forces. However, Russia still controls large portions of eastern and southern Ukraine and has adapted its strategy to a war of attrition, leveraging its superior resources and manpower.
Military Setbacks and Ukrainian Resistance
Russia’s early failures were stark. The attempted blitzkrieg on Kyiv in February 2022 collapsed due to poor logistics, low morale, and fierce Ukrainian resistance. Ukrainian forces successfully defended major cities, retook Kharkiv in a surprise counteroffensive in September 2022, and forced a Russian retreat from Kherson later that year. The much-hyped 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, however, failed to achieve major breakthroughs due to heavily fortified Russian defenses, landmines, and air superiority issues.
Despite these setbacks, Russia has made incremental gains in 2024, particularly around Avdiivka and Bakhmut, where it has employed brutal “meat grinder” tactics—sacrificing large numbers of poorly trained conscripts and Wagner mercenaries to wear down Ukrainian defenses. While costly, this strategy has allowed Russia to seize small amounts of territory at a high human cost.
Economic and Industrial Resilience
Western sanctions have hurt Russia’s economy but not crippled it. Moscow has circumvented oil price caps by selling to China, India, and other non-Western buyers, keeping energy revenues flowing. Its military-industrial complex has ramped up production, manufacturing more drones, missiles, and artillery shells than NATO countries can supply to Ukraine. However, this comes at the expense of civilian economic growth, with rising inflation and labor shortages due to mass conscription.
Ukraine, meanwhile, remains heavily dependent on Western aid. Delays in U.S. and EU funding have left Ukrainian forces short on ammunition, air defenses, and manpower. If Western support wavers further, Russia’s greater resources could prove decisive in a prolonged war.
Geopolitical Isolation vs. Shifting Alliances
Russia has become increasingly isolated from the West, facing unprecedented sanctions and diplomatic expulsions. However, it has strengthened ties with China, Iran, and North Korea, which supply drones, missiles, and artillery. These partnerships help sustain Russia’s war effort despite Western pressure.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has secured NATO-level weapons and training but still lacks formal membership guarantees. While Europe remains committed to supporting Kyiv, political divisions in the U.S. threaten future aid packages. If Ukraine loses Western backing, Russia could regain the upper hand.
Is Russia Actually Losing?
In absolute terms, Russia has not achieved its initial war goals—regime change in Kyiv and full control of Ukraine. Its military has suffered staggering losses (over 300,000 casualties by some estimates), and its global reputation has been severely damaged. However, it still occupies about 18% of Ukrainian territory and shows no signs of withdrawing.
If the war continues as a grinding stalemate, Russia may eventually outlast Ukraine simply due to its larger population and resources. Yet outright victory seems unlikely without further escalation, such as a full national mobilization or direct NATO involvement.
Ultimately, while Russia is not yet defeated, it is far from winning. The outcome hinges on whether Ukraine can sustain Western support long enough to break Russian morale or whether Moscow’s willingness to absorb endless casualties will eventually overwhelm Kyiv’s defenses. For now, the war remains a brutal deadlock with no clear end in sight.