As of mid-2024, Ukraine controls approximately 82% of its internationally recognized territory, while Russia occupies about 18%, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas and southern regions. The exact figures fluctuate due to ongoing battles, but Ukraine has successfully reclaimed significant land since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. However, recent Russian offensives have led to small but costly territorial gains for Moscow, particularly in the east.
Pre-War Borders and Initial Russian Gains
Before Russia’s 2022 invasion, Ukraine controlled around 93% of its sovereign territory, with Russia occupying Crimea (since 2014) and portions of Donetsk and Luhansk (held by Russian-backed separatists). When the full-scale war began, Russian forces quickly seized large areas in the north (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy), east (Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk), and south (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia). At the peak of its advance in March 2022, Russia controlled roughly 27% of Ukraine, including major cities like Kherson and Mariupol.
Ukraine’s Counteroffensives and Reclaimed Land
Ukraine’s military, bolstered by Western weapons and intelligence, launched several successful counteroffensives:
- Kyiv and Northern Ukraine (April 2022) – Russian forces retreated from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions after failing to capture the capital.
- Kharkiv Counteroffensive (September 2022) – In a lightning-fast operation, Ukraine recaptured over 6,000 square kilometers in the Kharkiv region, pushing Russian troops back toward the border.
- Kherson Liberation (November 2022) – After months of attritional warfare, Russia withdrew from the city of Kherson, abandoning the only regional capital it had captured.
By late 2022, Ukraine had reduced Russian-occupied territory to about 18%, retaking nearly 50,000 square kilometers in just a few months.
The Stalemate in 2023-2024
Ukraine’s 2023 summer counteroffensive, aimed at breaking through Russian defenses in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, failed to achieve major territorial gains. Despite Western-supplied tanks and artillery, dense minefields, Russian air superiority, and fortified trenches stalled Ukrainian advances. Russia, meanwhile, adopted a defensive strategy, focusing on holding occupied land while launching relentless attacks in the east.
In early 2024, Russia intensified offensives around Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Chasiv Yar, capturing small towns at a high human cost. By May 2024, Russia had gained around 500 square kilometers of new territory, mostly in Donetsk. While these gains are minor compared to Ukraine’s 2022 successes, they demonstrate Russia’s willingness to expend massive resources for incremental progress.
Current Territorial Control (Mid-2024)
Ukrainian-Controlled Territory (82%)
- All of Western and Central Ukraine, including Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Kharkiv.
- Most of the Black Sea coast, except for Crimea and parts of the Kinburn Spit.
- Northern and northeastern regions, fully liberated in 2022.
- Parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, including key cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Russian-Occupied Territory (18%)
- Crimea (since 2014) – Illegally annexed and heavily militarized.
- Eastern Donbas – Major cities like Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol remain under Russian control.
- Southern Ukraine – Russia holds parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, including Melitopol and Berdiansk.
The Black Sea and Crimea Factor
Despite Russia’s land occupation, Ukraine has successfully challenged its naval dominance in the Black Sea. Using drones and Western-supplied missiles, Ukraine has:
- Sunk over 20 Russian warships, including the flagship Moskva.
- Forced Russia to relocate its fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
- Restored grain exports via a new shipping corridor despite Russian blockades.
These naval successes have weakened Russia’s grip on Crimea, though Ukraine has yet to launch a full-scale campaign to retake the peninsula.
Future Prospects: Can Ukraine Regain More Land?
Ukraine’s ability to reclaim territory depends on several factors:
- Western Military Aid – Delays in U.S. and EU funding have left Ukraine short on artillery shells, air defenses, and long-range missiles.
- Manpower and Mobilization – Russia has a larger population, but Ukraine’s more motivated troops could offset this with better training and equipment.
- Russian Defenses – Moscow has built extensive fortifications, making large Ukrainian breakthroughs difficult without advanced weapons like F-16s and ATACMS.
Possible Scenarios
- Frozen Conflict – If neither side achieves a decisive victory, the war could settle into a prolonged stalemate, with Russia holding occupied regions indefinitely.
- Ukrainian Breakthrough – With sustained Western support, Ukraine could replicate its 2022 successes, particularly if Russian morale collapses.
- Russian Gains – If Western aid dries up, Russia may push further into Donetsk, Kharkiv, or even target Odesa.
Conclusion
Ukraine currently controls 82% of its territory, having liberated vast areas since 2022. However, Russia still holds Crimea and key eastern regions, and recent offensives show it remains capable of small but costly advances. The war’s outcome hinges on Western support, Ukrainian resilience, and Russia’s willingness to endure heavy losses. While Ukraine has defied expectations, reclaiming all occupied land—especially Crimea—will require even greater military and diplomatic efforts in the coming years.