For decades, Germany’s role on the world stage was defined by a single, powerful word: restraint. Forged in the crucible of its 20th-century history, the post-war German identity was pacifist, economically focused, and deeply embedded in multilateral structures like the European Union and NATO. It was a “civilian power,” a trading state that projected influence through economic strength and diplomacy, not military might. The world knew what to expect from Berlin: checkbook diplomacy, a cautious voice, and a steadfast commitment to the transatlantic alliance.
Then came the 21st century.
A succession of global shocks—the 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 migration wave, the rise of an assertive China, the Trump presidency, Brexit, and finally, the watershed moment of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—shattered this comfortable post-Cold War consensus. Germany, the economic heart of Europe, found itself thrust into a position it long sought to avoid: that of a central geopolitical actor. Its journey from a reluctant giant to a nation grappling with the burdens of leadership is the defining story of European politics in our time.
This blog post traces the evolution of Germany’s foreign policy through three distinct, yet overlapping, phases: the era of “Change Through Trade”, the era of “Waking Up Slowly”, and the current, tumultuous era of “The Zeitenwende and Its Discontents.”
Phase I: The Comfortable Consensus (2000-2014) – “Change Through Trade”
In the early 2000s, Germany was often labelled the “sick man of Europe.” Struggling with the costs of reunification and rigid economic structures, its gaze was turned inward. This changed with Chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s “Agenda 2010” reforms, which revitalized the German economy, supercharging its export-oriented model. Under the steady, pragmatic leadership of Angela Merkel, who took office in 2005, German foreign policy became an extension of this economic success.
The core doctrine was “Wandel durch Handel”—Change Through Trade. The belief was that by deeply enmeshing authoritarian states like Russia and China in a web of economic interdependence, they would gradually become more open, predictable, and rule-based. This was not just a strategy; it was an article of faith.
- The Russian Partnership: The pinnacle of this policy was the Nord Stream pipeline project, championed by both Schröder and Merkel. Bypassing Eastern European nations like Poland and Ukraine, Nord Stream directly linked Germany to Russian gas. It was a quintessential “win-win”: Germany secured cheap, reliable energy for its industries, and Russia gained revenue and political leverage. Critics who warned of the strategic vulnerability were often dismissed as hawkish or anti-dialogue.
- The China Embrace: A similar logic applied to China. Germany became China’s largest trading partner in Europe. German automotive giants like Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler built vast empires within China, viewing it as the market of the future. The political and human rights concerns that occasionally surfaced were routinely subordinated to commercial interests.
- Military Restraint: The military, the Bundeswehr, was systematically underfunded. Deployments abroad, like in Afghanistan, were strictly circumscribed by parliamentary mandates and public skepticism. The idea of Germany as a major military power was anathema to its political class and public.
This era was one of remarkable stability and prosperity for Germany. It was a policy that worked—until it didn’t.
Phase II: The Cracks Appear (2014-2022) – Waking Up Slowly
The first major crack in the foundation appeared in 2014 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea. For Germany’s Eastern EU and NATO partners, this was a terrifying confirmation of their deepest fears. For Berlin, it was a profound shock to the system. Merkel, fluent in Russian and understanding of the post-Soviet mindset, led the push for EU sanctions against Moscow. It was a significant step, but it was a calibrated response, not a paradigm shift. The belief in dialogue and the core tenets of Wandel durch Handel persisted; Nord Stream 2 continued to be pursued.
A cascade of other crises followed, forcing a gradual, often reluctant, reassessment:
- The 2015 Refugee Crisis: When over a million refugees, primarily from Syria, arrived in Germany, Merkel’s open-door policy, “Wir schaffen das” (We can do this), was a monumental humanitarian gesture. However, it exposed the limits of German capacity and the deep political divisions within Europe. It highlighted how Germany’s size and location made it vulnerable to instability beyond its borders, and it fueled the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
- The Trump Presidency (2017-2021): Donald Trump’s open hostility towards the EU, NATO, and Merkel personally was a tectonic shock. He labelled Germany a captive of Russia and threatened trade wars. The assumption of an unwavering, benign United States—the ultimate guarantor of German security since 1945—was suddenly in question. Overnight, calls for “European strategic autonomy” moved from think-tank papers to mainstream political discourse.
- The Rise of China: China’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy, its systematic human rights abuses, and its use of economic coercion against countries like Lithuania and Australia made it impossible to view Beijing as a simple trading partner. The naive hope of “change through trade” was crumbling in the face of a systemic rival that played by different rules.
By the early 2020s, Germany was adrift. Its foundational foreign policy doctrines were failing, but there was no clear consensus on what should replace them. The country was richer and more powerful than ever, yet it felt more vulnerable. Then, on February 24, 2022, the world changed.
Phase III: The Zeitenwende (2022-Present) – A Revolution Promised, A Transformation in Progress
Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was the ultimate negation of Germany’s post-Cold War policy. It was not just an attack on a sovereign nation; it was an attack on the very idea that economic interdependence guarantees peace. Three days later, in a speech to a special session of the Bundestag, the new Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announced a “Zeitenwende”—a historic turning point.
The promises were breathtaking in their scale and ambition:
- A €100 billion special fund to revitalize the dilapidated Bundeswehr.
- A commitment to exceed the NATO 2% of GDP defense spending target consistently.
- An immediate end to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.
- A fundamental re-evaluation of Germany’s relationship with Russia and China.
For a moment, it seemed Germany was ready to shed its reluctance and embrace its role as a guarantor of European security. The world watched, expecting a swift and decisive transformation.
Two years on, the picture is more complex. The Zeitenwende is real, but it is a messy, contested, and often frustrating process of adaptation.
The Implementation Gap:
- Military Modernization: The €100 billion fund has been slow to disburse. Bureaucratic hurdles, a lack of clear procurement strategies, and capacity issues within the German defense industry have meant that major new equipment orders are only just being placed. The Bundeswehr remains, by its own chief’s admission, “broke.” The 2% GDP target was only met in 2024, driven in part by inflation, and its sustainability is uncertain.
- Strategic Clarity on China: This is perhaps the most difficult balancing act. The government’s first-ever China Strategy, published in 2023, acknowledges the systemic rivalry and calls for “de-risking”—reducing critical dependencies. However, the powerful German automotive and chemical industries, with their massive investments in the Chinese market, are resisting a rapid decoupling. The tension between economic interests and security concerns is the central fault line in German foreign policy today.
- Leadership in Europe: Germany has taken a leading role in supporting Ukraine, providing significant financial aid, weaponry (from Leopard tanks to air defense systems), and hosting over a million Ukrainian refugees. However, its decision-making is often perceived as hesitant—agonizing over each new weapons system, fearful of escalation. This “hesitant leadership” frustrates its Eastern European allies, who desire a more proactive and rapid response.
The Enduring Dilemmas of a Geopolitical Germany
As Germany navigates this new era, it is grappling with profound, unresolved dilemmas:
- The Nuclear Question: Germany’s pacifist DNA makes a discussion about a European nuclear deterrent, led by France, politically toxic. Yet, in a world where the US commitment cannot be taken for granted, this remains a strategic question that Europe, and Germany, must eventually confront.
- The Sovereignty vs. Integration Paradox: Germany’s power is most effective when channeled through the EU. Yet, the Zeitenwende has also sparked a debate about national sovereignty and the need for Germany to act decisively, even unilaterally, at times. Finding the right balance is key.
- Public Opinion: The German public, while broadly supportive of Ukraine, remains deeply skeptical of military engagement. Any suggestion of sending troops, even for training missions inside Ukraine, triggers a fierce political debate. A sustainable foreign policy must carry the public with it.
Conclusion: The Work in Progress
Germany’s foreign policy in the 21st century is a story of an unprecedented peaceful power being forced by events to confront the harsh realities of geopolitics. The era of “change through trade” is over, but a new, coherent doctrine has not yet fully emerged to take its place. The Zeitenwende was the necessary recognition of this failure, but its implementation is the real challenge.
Germany is no longer reluctant in its rhetoric, but it remains cautious in its actions. It is learning to wield its immense economic, diplomatic, and potential military power in a world that is more dangerous and unpredictable than it has known for generations. The success or failure of this transformation will not only define Germany’s future but will also determine the security and stability of the entire European continent. The reluctant giant is awake, but it is still learning how to walk in a new world. The journey of the Zeitenwende is far from over.