Bangladesh’s military has played a complex, often controversial role in the nation’s politics since independence in 1971. While officially apolitical, the armed forces have repeatedly intervened in governance, either through coups, backroom influence, or “soft power” control.
In 2025, as Bangladesh faces rising authoritarianism and political instability, the military remains a key power broker—even if it operates behind the scenes.
This in-depth analysis examines:
✔ Historical military interventions
✔ Current influence under Sheikh Hasina’s government
✔ The “deep state” power structure
✔ Future scenarios: Will the military take over again?
1. A History of Military Coups & Influence
1.1 Direct Rule: The Ershad Dictatorship (1982-1990)
- General Hussain Muhammad Ershad seized power in a bloodless coup.
- Ruled for 8 years before mass protests ousted him.
- Set precedent for military involvement in politics.
1.2 The 2007-2008 Caretaker Government
- Military-backed technocrats ruled after political chaos.
- Arrested Sheikh Hasina & Khaleda Zia to “clean up corruption.”
- Eventually allowed elections, returning power to civilians.
1.3 Post-2009: The “Silent Guardian” Role
- No direct coups, but military controls key sectors:
- Security policy
- Business ventures (e.g., Sena Kalyan Sangstha)
- Intelligence operations (DGFI, NSI)
2. Military’s Role in 2025: Kingmakers or Puppeteers?
2.1 Formal Power Structure
| Institution | Role in Politics |
|---|---|
| Bangladesh Army | Ensures internal stability, anti-coup measures |
| DGFI (Military Intelligence) | Monitors politicians, activists, media |
| NSI (National Security Intelligence) | Handles counterterrorism, political surveillance |
2.2 Informal Influence
✔ Business empire – Military runs banks, real estate, telecom.
✔ Kingmaker in elections – Ensures “stability” (i.e., AL dominance).
✔ Shadow negotiations – Mediates between govt. & opposition.
2.3 Case Study: 2024 Election & Military’s Role
- No overt interference, but:
- Opposition claims military pressured candidates to withdraw.
- DGFI monitored social media for “anti-state” posts.
- Security forces “guarded” polling centers (intimidating voters?).
3. The “Deep State”: Who Really Runs Bangladesh?
3.1 Military vs. Civilian Government
- Sheikh Hasina’s government depends on military support.
- But military avoids direct rule (bad for international image).
- Balance of power:
- Govt. handles politics, military handles “security.”
3.2 Key Power Players in 2025
- Army Chief General SM Shafiuddin Ahmed – Most powerful military figure.
- DGFI Director Major General Tarique Siddique – Controls intelligence ops.
- NSI Chief Brigadier General Mohammad Baker – Oversees political surveillance.
3.3 How the Military Benefits from the Status Quo
✔ Budget increases (2025 defense budget: $5.1 billion).
✔ Business monopolies (construction, import-export).
✔ Political protection (no accountability for rights abuses).
4. Could Bangladesh See Another Military Coup?
4.1 Why a Coup is Unlikely (For Now)
✔ Military prefers stability under AL.
✔ International backlash would be severe.
✔ Economy still growing (no public unrest justifying intervention).
4.2 Triggers That Could Force Military Action
✔ Mass uprising against AL (like 1990 vs. Ershad).
✔ Economic collapse (hyperinflation, bank failures).
✔ AL losing control (if BNP somehow resurges).
4.3 “Soft Coup” Scenario
- Military pressures Hasina to resign (health pretext?).
- Installs “neutral” caretaker government.
- New elections with controlled outcome.
5. International Perspectives: Who Supports the Military?
5.1 China’s Role
✔ Arms supplier & strategic ally.
✔ Prefers military-backed stability over democracy.
5.2 US & Western Stance
✔ Criticizes military’s rights abuses.
✔ But cooperates on counterterrorism.
5.3 India’s Position
✔ Supports AL-military alliance (counterterrorism, anti-China buffer).
✔ Worried about Islamist influence if military withdraws.
Conclusion: The Military’s Dilemma – Protect the State or Control It?
Bangladesh’s military faces a critical choice:
- Continue supporting AL’s authoritarian rule?
- Allow democracy, risking chaos?
- Stage another coup, risking global isolation?
For now, the status quo works—but if public anger explodes, the generals may step in as “saviors” again.
FAQ: Bangladesh Military’s Political Role
1. Has the military ever been fully out of politics?
- No – Even in democratic periods, it pulls strings.
2. Who is more powerful – PM or Army Chief?
- Sheikh Hasina rules, but Army Chief can veto security decisions.
3. Does the military support BNP?
- No – Sees BNP as unstable, prefers AL’s pro-military policies.
4. Could the military turn against Hasina?
- Only if she loses control or economy collapses.
5. What do soldiers think about politics?
- Rank-and-file stay neutral, but top brass make deals.
6. Will Bangladesh return to full military rule?
- Unlikely soon, but “soft coups” are possible.