The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan is one of the most complex and fraught in international diplomacy. Forged in the crucible of colonialism, hardened during the Cold War, and strained to breaking point by the “War on Terror,” it is a bond defined by suspicion, strategic depth, and a shared, often turbulent, history. Into this volatile mix entered Operation Sindoor—a alleged covert campaign by Pakistani intelligence agencies to target and eliminate individuals deemed enemies of the state, primarily within Pakistan. While the operation was domestically focused, its reverberations spilled violently across the Durand Line, profoundly impacting the already fragile relationship with Afghanistan and exacerbating tensions to a dangerous degree.
To understand the impact of Operation Sindoor, one must first grasp the foundational grievances that shape Afghan policy towards Pakistan. For decades, elements within the Afghan political and security establishment, particularly those aligned with the former Northern Alliance, have accused Pakistan of practicing a policy of “strategic depth”—using militant proxies like the Taliban to install a friendly government in Kabul and ensure a pliable western border. This has bred a deep-seated resentment. From the Afghan perspective, Operation Sindoor was not an isolated counter-terrorism effort but the latest manifestation of a long-standing Pakistani strategy of using violent non-state actors as tools of foreign policy, only to turn on them when their usefulness expired or when they threatened the Pakistani state itself.
The Cross-Border Spillover: A Narrative Weaponized
While Operation Sindoor’s operations were reportedly confined to Pakistani soil, its targets were often individuals and groups with deep ideological, ethnic, and logistical ties across the border. The operation’s focus on certain militant factions created an immediate and dangerous spillover effect:
- The Refugee and Militant Flow: As pressure mounted within Pakistan’s tribal regions and urban centers, many targeted individuals and their sympathizers fled across the porous border into Afghanistan. This influx of battle-hardened militants into eastern Afghan provinces like Nangarhar and Kunar further destabilized these regions. It complicated the security landscape for Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and their international allies, who now had to contend with a new wave of armed actors with their own vendettas and agendas.
- Providing a Safe Haven: The Afghan government, particularly under President Ashraf Ghani, saw an opportunity in Pakistan’s internal crackdown. Elements within the National Directorate of Security (NDS) were historically accused of providing support, or at least turning a blind eye, to anti-Pakistan militants, including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The increased pressure from Operation Sindoor gave these Afghan elements a strategic advantage. By offering sanctuary to TTP leaders and fighters fleeing Sindoor, they could retaliate against Pakistan’s alleged support for the Afghan Taliban, effectively fighting a proxy war by hosting Pakistan’s enemies. This turned the “strategic depth” doctrine on its head, with Afghanistan now providing “strategic depth” to Pakistan’s antagonists.
The Erosion of Trust and Diplomatic Fallout
The most significant impact of Operation Sindoor was on the already minimal trust between the two capitals. The operation became a central point of contention in every high-level meeting and diplomatic engagement.
- Pakistani Accusations: Pakistan’s military and political leadership pointed to the presence of TTP leadership in Afghanistan as clear evidence of the Afghan government’s malign intent and inability to control its own territory. They argued that their actions under operations like Sindoor were acts of national self-defense necessitated by Afghan inaction or even complicity. Every major terrorist attack in Pakistan, like the devastating Army Public School massacre in Peshawar, was followed by renewed Pakistani demands for Afghanistan to “do more” against the TTP sanctuaries, demands framed by the context of Pakistan’s own covert actions.
- Afghan Counter-Accusations: For Afghanistan, Operation Sindoor was the ultimate hypocrisy. Afghan diplomats and officials weaponized the international media reports on the covert operation to counter Pakistan’s narrative. Their argument was potent: “How can Pakistan lecture us on terrorism and hosting militants when its own agencies are engaged in extrajudicial killings? How can they demand we crack down on the Haqqani Network while they are simultaneously executing a clandestine campaign against other groups?” This framing was highly effective in international forums, painting Pakistan as a duplicitous actor not truly committed to a peaceful, rules-based order.
This tit-for-tat blame game crippled any potential for meaningful security cooperation. Joint intelligence sharing initiatives stalled, and cross-border coordination became virtually nonexistent. The border itself became a militarized zone, with frequent closures and skirmishes between border forces, severely impacting trade and dividing families.
Impact on the Afghan Taliban Dynamic
The operation also subtly influenced the dynamic with the Afghan Taliban. While Pakistan maintained its support for the group as its primary leverage in Afghanistan, Operation Sindoor sent a clear message to all militant proxies: your utility is conditional. The same establishment that provided shelter and support could, and would, turn against you if you threatened its core interests. This may have contributed to a sense of distrust among the Taliban’s various factions towards their Pakistani handlers, even as they continued to rely on them for sanctuary.
Furthermore, the operation reinforced the Afghan Taliban’s own propaganda narrative. They could point to Sindoor as evidence that the Pakistani state was ultimately a unreliable partner, a puppet of the West, and that their fight was part of a broader regional struggle against state-sponsored oppression.
Conclusion: Deepening the Chasm
Operation Sindoor did not create the rift between Pakistan and Afghanistan; that chasm was dug over decades. However, it dramatically widened it and poured concrete into the foundations of mutual animosity. It transformed abstract accusations of duplicity into a tangible, bloody campaign that could be cited and weaponized in diplomatic parlays.
The operation reinforced the worst fears each nation held about the other: for Afghanistan, it was proof of Pakistan’s ruthless and unilateral approach to security. For Pakistan, it confirmed their belief that Afghanistan would willingly host terrorists to bleed Pakistan. It created a vicious cycle of action and reaction, where cross-border militant sanctuaries became both a cause and a consequence of deep-seated mistrust.
Ultimately, the legacy of Operation Sindoor on Pakistan-Afghanistan relations is a testament to the law of unintended consequences in international relations. A covert campaign designed to enhance domestic security ultimately achieved the opposite, poisoning a vital foreign relationship and proving that in the interconnected world of South Asian geopolitics, no action—especially a lethal one—occurs in a vacuum. The echoes of its explosions were heard loudest not in Pakistan’s cities, but in the presidential palaces and military headquarters of Kabul, where they hardened hearts and closed doors for years to come.