As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year, the battlefield remains highly dynamic, with both sides struggling for incremental gains amid heavy casualties and logistical challenges. The latest war map reflects ongoing clashes along multiple fronts, including Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, with neither Russia nor Ukraine achieving a decisive breakthrough. Below is a detailed analysis of the current territorial control, key battles, and strategic implications based on the most recent updates.
1. Eastern Front: Russia’s Relentless Push in Donbas
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions remain the epicenter of fighting, where Russian forces continue their slow but grinding offensive. Over the past month, Moscow’s troops have intensified attacks around Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Chasiv Yar, leveraging heavy artillery and aerial bombardments to weaken Ukrainian defenses.
- Avdiivka: After months of brutal assaults, Russia finally captured this strategically important city in February 2024, marking its most significant gain since Bakhmut in May 2023. Ukrainian forces have since withdrawn to secondary defensive lines, but Russian advances beyond Avdiivka have been slow due to fortified Ukrainian positions.
- Bakhmut: Although Russia declared victory in Bakhmut last year, Ukraine has retaken some territory on the southern and northern flanks, including Klishchiivka and Andriivka. These gains, while small, threaten Russian supply lines and force Moscow to divert troops to hold the area.
- Chasiv Yar: A new focal point, this elevated town west of Bakhmut is critical for controlling key supply routes. Russian forces are attempting to encircle it, but Ukrainian defenders have so far held their ground despite relentless attacks.
2. Southern Front: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Stalls, but Pressure Continues
Ukraine’s much-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive failed to achieve a major breakthrough in the south, particularly in Zaporizhzhia, where Russian defenses proved stronger than expected. However, Ukrainian forces have maintained pressure with localized assaults and long-range strikes.
- Robotyne and Verbove: These villages, captured by Ukraine in late 2023, remain under Kyiv’s control, but further advances toward Tokmak (a key Russian logistics hub) have stalled due to minefields and fortified trenches.
- Dnipro River Crossings (Kherson): Ukraine has successfully pushed Russian forces back from the river’s western bank, preventing Moscow from establishing a strong foothold. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have targeted Russian positions in Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, disrupting supply lines.
3. Kharkiv and Northern Front: Russian Attempts to Stretch Ukrainian Defenses
In recent weeks, Russia has increased cross-border shelling and ground assaults in Kharkiv Oblast, possibly testing Ukrainian defenses for a larger offensive. While no major territorial changes have occurred, small-scale skirmishes near Kupiansk suggest Moscow may be probing for weaknesses.
- Vovchansk and Lyptsi: These towns near the border have seen increased Russian activity, possibly aimed at diverting Ukrainian troops from Donbas.
- Belgorod (Russia): Ukrainian cross-border raids and drone strikes have intensified, targeting military bases and logistics hubs in an effort to disrupt Russian operations.
4. Black Sea and Crimea: Ukraine’s Asymmetric Successes
Despite Russia’s naval dominance, Ukraine has scored significant victories in the Black Sea through drone and missile attacks, forcing Moscow to relocate its fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
- Crimea: Ukrainian strikes have damaged Russian air defenses, warships, and the Kerch Bridge, though repairs continue. These attacks aim to degrade Russia’s ability to supply its southern forces.
- Snake Island: Though Russia withdrew in 2022, the Black Sea remains contested, with Ukraine using sea drones to target Russian vessels.
5. Current Control Map Overview (As of Latest Reports)
- Russia controls ~18% of Ukraine, including Crimea, most of Luhansk, large parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
- Ukraine has retaken ~54% of the land Russia seized since February 2022, including Kherson city and parts of Kharkiv Oblast.
- The front lines have shifted only marginally in 2024, indicating a potential stalemate unless either side gains a major advantage.
6. Strategic Implications and Future Outlook
- Russia’s Strategy: Moscow appears to be prioritizing attritional warfare, hoping to exhaust Ukrainian forces before Western aid arrives in full. Its recent gains in Avdiivka demonstrate its willingness to sacrifice large numbers of troops for small territorial wins.
- Ukraine’s Challenges: Kyiv faces ammunition shortages and manpower issues but is banking on upcoming F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles to regain momentum.
- Winter and 2025: The coming months may see reduced large-scale offensives due to weather, but both sides will prepare for potential spring campaigns.
Conclusion: A War of Inches with No Clear End in Sight
The latest war map confirms that the conflict remains deadlocked, with Russia making minor advances at a high cost while Ukraine focuses on defense and asymmetric strikes. The next major shifts will likely depend on Western military aid, Russia’s ability to sustain losses, and potential Ukrainian breakthroughs in Crimea or the south.